Being one of the smallest countries in Africa, Djibouti faces limitations in diversifying its production due to the size of its economy. This reliance on foreign markets renders it more susceptible to market downturns and hinders its access to external capital. The engine of the country’s economy is its state-of-the-art port complex, ranked among the most advanced globally. After slowing to 3.2% in 2022, during 2023, as shocks eased, growth surged to approximately 7%, buoyed by robust port traffic, which increased by 31% until the end of September 2023, and the construction sector. The IMF anticipates that the recovery will persist in 2024, albeit at a reduced pace (+6%), and is contingent upon significant risks associated with the situation in the Red Sea and developments in Ethiopia.
Djibouti is facing fiscal pressure stemming from reduced tax revenues, recent tax exemptions, and escalating costs associated with servicing public debt. However, its banking sector remains robust, marked by stability, heightened profitability, and a decrease in non-performing loans, despite recent economic upheavals (World Bank). Total public spending surged in 2023, mainly driven by increased capital expenditure, leading to a widened budget deficit of 1.9% of GDP. Djibouti's external debt reached 69.4% of GDP in 2023, up from 66.5% in 2022, due to new loans and the inclusion of last year's debt arrears. Furthermore, Djibouti's stock of external arrears significantly increased to 6% of GDP by the end of September 2023 (data World Bank). In late 2023, Djiboutian authorities reached a preliminary agreement with its main creditor, EXIMBANK CHINA, for debt reprofiling, including a 4-year moratorium for rail and water supply projects, aiming to secure more favorable terms. However, addressing outstanding arrears with other creditors remains crucial to mitigate continued debt distress. Inflation reached its peak at 11% in July 2022 but slowed down to 3.8% by December 2023, primarily due to global decreases in food prices and government interventions. The government “Vision Djibouti 2035” strategy aims to transform the country into a middle-income economy and a logistics and commercial hub for East Africa. The key challenge pointed out by the IMF is for Djibouti to adjust its growth model to reduce dependence on debt-financed investments while supporting an inclusive recovery. Domestic revenue mobilization, improved oversight of public enterprises and rationalization of subsidies are essential. Other challenges include poor governance, the increasing dependency on Ethiopia and China, and the widening gap separating the modern portion of the economy and the archaic informal portion on which the population is largely dependent (Coface). In addition, the deterioration of economic and security climate among Djibouti's major economic partners (Yemen, Somalia and Ethiopia) poses risks to the country's economy, which accommodates an increasing number of refugees fleeing the conflict in Yemen.
Djibouti remains a poor country with a high unemployment rate of 26.3% of the total labor force in 2023 (World Bank, modeled ILO estimate), vast inequalities and a low level of education. Despite this, poverty rates are expected to have decreased from the 19% baseline in 2017 to approximately 14.7% in 2024. Projected poverty rates are anticipated to decrease in tandem with GDP growth, with poverty rates projected to reach 13.5% in 2026 (based on the international poverty line) and 33.1% (based on the lower middle-income poverty line – data World Bank).
Main Indicators | 2022 | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP (billions USD) | 3.73 | 4.02 | 4.36 | 4.72 | 5.10 |
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 |
GDP per Capita (USD) | 3,667 | 3,907 | 4,184 | 4,465 | 4,775 |
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 67.9 | 60.8 | 56.5 | 51.7 | 46.3 |
Inflation Rate (%) | 5.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Current Account (billions USD) | 0.66 | 0.95 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.15 |
Current Account (in % of GDP) | 17.6 | 23.5 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database - October 2021.
Note: (e) Estimated Data
Monetary Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Djibouti Franc (DJF) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 GHS | 44.54 | 40.85 | 38.76 | 34.17 | 31.76 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
---|---|---|---|
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 1.2 | 6.1 | 92.7 |
Value Added (in % of GDP) | 1.7 | 14.9 | 77.3 |
Value Added (Annual % Change) | 11.5 | -4.4 | 3.1 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
---|---|---|---|
Labour Force | 406,886 | 414,572 | 412,419 |
Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|
Total activity rate | 63.82% | 63.75% | 63.70% |
Men activity rate | 72.63% | 72.33% | 72.08% |
Women activity rate | 53.89% | 54.06% | 54.24% |
Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database
The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.
Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House
The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).
Any Comment About This Content? Report It to Us.
© eexpand, All Rights Reserved.
Latest Update: May 2024