flag Guinea Guinea: Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

Guinea experienced robust economic growth from 2019 to 2023, averaging 5.4% (2.9% per capita), propelled by the mining sector and increased agricultural productivity. This supported low fiscal deficits to GDP, averaging 1.7%. As per the World Bank, in 2023, growth accelerated to 7.1% (4.6% per capita), driven by robust performance in the mining sector. Bauxite production surged by 22%, and gold exports by 10%, attributed to both artisanal operators and new formal sector companies. Growth was fueled by an investment surge, both private and public, on the demand side. Mining will remain the key driver of growth, while non-mining sectors, affected by the fuel depot explosion in mid-December 2023, undergo recovery. Growth is expected to decelerate to around 4.9% in 2024 (2.4% per capita) and then accelerate to an average of 6.3% in 2025–2026 (excluding Simandou mine exports expected by end-2026), albeit below the potential rate of 9.3%. The Simandou mining operation, anticipated to nearly triple Guinea’s GDP in the medium term, presents an opportunity to fundamentally transform the country’s economy.

Concerning public finances, the fiscal deficit widened to 1.6% of GDP in 2023 from 0.9% in 2022, due to a 1.3 percentage point increase in capital expenditure. The fiscal deficit (including grants) is projected to widen to 2.7% of GDP due to increased capital expenditures but is expected to decrease to 2.1% in 2025-2026, in line with prudent fiscal policies. Tax revenues are anticipated to rise slightly in 2024 to 12.7% of GDP, supported by tax administration reforms and additional mining revenues from implementing the bauxite-reference price mechanism starting July 2022. Electricity subsidies are set to decrease by 38% as per the 2024 budget law, driven by utility company reforms, notably the ongoing deployment of prepaid meters and intensified billing recovery efforts. Debt-to-GDP is forecasted to decrease marginally to 35.3% in 2024 and to average 32.0% in 2025-2026, owing to reduced domestic debt (data World Bank). Inflation slowed but remained elevated, at 9.3% in 2023, down from 11.6% in 2022, supported by stable transport costs and prudent fiscal and monetary policies (reserve money increased by only 3% and broad money by 1.5%). However, food price inflation is estimated to have risen from 13.9% in 2022 to 16.2% in 2023. Inflation is expected to slow down to 8.8% in 2024 and to an average of 8.1% in 2025-26. This deceleration is attributed to easing supply constraints and enhancements in road-network conditions, which facilitate food distribution. Additionally, prudent monetary policies, including minimal fiscal financing, contribute to this trend.

Multiple social inequalities are recorded in Guinea, which is classified as a low-income country by the World Bank (with a GDP per capita of only USD 3,188 PPP in 2022). It is estimated that the informal economy accounts for around half of the GDP and 70% of employment. According to figures from the World Bank, the unemployment rate stood at 5.4% in 2023 (from 5.5% one year earlier). Weak linkages between the mining and non-mining sectors, challenges stemming from Dutch-disease dynamics, and recent external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have constrained job creation and poverty reduction efforts. Despite the mining-driven growth, the USD 2.15 international poverty rate averaged 10.6% over the same period, indicating limited impact.

 
Main Indicators 20222023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 20.3023.2125.3327.3329.34
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 4.35.95.65.65.4
GDP per Capita (USD) 1,3841,5431,6431,7291,811
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 33.131.631.531.629.9
Inflation Rate (%) n/a8.37.97.77.5
Current Account (billions USD) -1.67-2.06-2.22-2.59-2.30
Current Account (in % of GDP) -8.2-8.9-8.8-9.5-7.8

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database - October 2021.

Note: (e) Estimated Data


 
Monetary Indicators 20142015201820192020
Guinea Franc (GNF) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 GHS 1,890.602,017.661,965.211.731,709.37

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

Main Sectors of Industry

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 59.2 7.0 33.8
Value Added (in % of GDP) 27.3 28.8 35.3
Value Added (Annual % Change) 4.7 4.7 4.7

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

The Active Population in Figures

201820192020
Labour Force 4,290,4064,433,6724,456,144

Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database

 
201720182019
Total activity rate 63.29%63.11%62.96%
Men activity rate 61.49%61.05%60.66%
Women activity rate 64.87%64.93%65.01%

Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.

Score:
56,5/100
World Rank:
123
Regional Rank:
20

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 
 

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.

 

Indicator of Political Freedom

Definition:

The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.

Ranking:
Partly Free
Political Freedom:
5/7

Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House

 

Indicator of Freedom of the Press

Definition:

The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).

World Rank:
109/180

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Sources of General Economic Information

Main Online Newspapers and Portals
Allafrica, Guinea News
Guinea Newspapers and News Media Guide
Africa News - Guinea
BBC Country Profile, Guinea
Useful Resources
Ministry of Economy and Finance
Ministry of Mines
Ministry of Agriculture
Central Bank of Guinea
 
 

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Latest Update: May 2024