Niger: Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

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Niger's growth has been particularly resilient to shocks the past few years. Despite the
risks spurred by terrorist attacks, low uranium export prices, climate change affecting agriculture, the closure of the border with Nigeria, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Niger’s economy avoided recession. After slowing down to 1.4% in 2021 due to the decline in agricultural activity caused by low rainfall, GDP growth accelerated to 11.1% in 2022, driven by private investment and oil exports through the new pipeline to the Benin coast (IMF, Coface). Economic activity is expected to slow down to 6.1% GDP in 2023, before peaking up again to 13% GDP in 2024 (IMF). Rising oil exports, major donor-funded projects and foreign direct investment are important drivers of growth.

In 2022, Niger’s economic activity rebounded after a year of weak growth due to adverse weather conditions. However, in the context of high food import costs and security concerns, fiscal consolidation efforts have been delayed. Fiscal deficit increased from -5.9% GDP in 2021 to -6.9% GDP in 2022 (IMF). It is expected to gradually reduce to -5.3% GDP in 2023 and -4.1% GDP in 2024, thanks to increased revenues from customs duties, taxes and oil production and despite the persistence of social and security emergencies (IMF, Coface). The deficit will continue to be financed mainly through concessional loans and grants from partner organisations and countries (Coface). Public debt remained stable at 51.1% GDP in 2022, down from 51.3% GDP in 2021, and it is expected to reach 52.5% GDP in 2023 before declining to 49.4% GDP in 2024 (IMF). As it is mainly external and largely held by multilateral creditors, the risk of debt distress is reduced (Coface). Inflation increased from 3.8% in 2021 to 4.2% in 2022, but it is expected to decline to 2.8% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024, remaining well below the ECOWAS convergence criterion of 10% (IMF). The Central Bank of West African States is expected to continue controlling inflation by hiking interest rates (Coface). The authorities remain committed to the reforms agreed in relation to the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility approved by the IMF in December 2021. Reforms focus on ensuring debt sustainability, broadening fiscal space, improving spending quality, increasing governance and fighting against corruption, and addressing constraints to the business environment (IMF). The arrangement is expected to catalyse additional bilateral and multilateral financial support (IMF). The main threat to economic stability is the degraded security situation, because of terrorist groups' activities in the region (Boko Haram, AQMI, Al-Murabitoun). Climate shocks and protraction of Russia’s war against Ukraine are additional significant risks.

Niger is one of the world’s poorest countries, and it has one of the highest demographic growth rates. Insecurity worsened by Boko Haram attacks led to a major humanitarian crisis. UNHCR counts more than 350,000 refugees and displaced persons in Niger. In 2021, the country ranked 189th out of 191 in the world in terms of human development. World Bank estimated that official unemployment rate in Niger was around 0.7% in 2021.

Monetary Indicators	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
CFA Franc BCEAO (XOF) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 GHS	148.62	133.80	121.19	112.67	102.86

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

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Latest Update: September 2023