Suriname: Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

Suriname is a small, natural-resource-rich, upper-middle-income country in South America whose economy is driven by its abundant natural resources, with mining accounting for nearly half of public sector revenue and gold representing more than three-quarters of total exports, making the country extremely vulnerable to external shocks. Strong economic growth, averaging 4.4%, was recorded from 2001 to 2014; however, since then, Suriname’s economy has been in decline. According to the World Bank, output growth is estimated to have moderated to 2.1% in 2023, from a 2.4% rebound in 2022. Services and industry (manufacturing and construction) led the expansion, supported by recovery in agriculture. Real output growth in 2024 is projected to accelerate to 3.0%, propelled by public investment spending in non-oil sectors. Growth is anticipated to sustain momentum over the medium term despite fiscal consolidation, with private investment in infrastructure for the oil and gas sector gaining traction.

Suriname's fiscal policy is focused on restoring debt sustainability while enhancing the quality of public spending and safeguarding vulnerable individuals through improved social assistance. In 2023, the government attained a primary surplus of 1.6%, thanks to a range of revenue and expenditure measures. These measures encompassed the gradual elimination of energy subsidies, the broadening of VAT coverage on goods and services, and the exclusion of unregistered workers from public payrolls. Additionally, negotiations for debt restructuring with the majority of official and private creditors have concluded, and in December 2023, Standard and Poor's upgraded Suriname's credit rating to CCC+/C with a stable outlook, following the successful exchange with private bondholders. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at 107% in 2023 by the IMF, compared to 120.1% one year earlier. The fiscal position is forecasted to further improve as the government finalizes debt restructuring and terminates fuel subsidies to parastatals. Gross financing needs are anticipated to decrease until 2026, although external debt repayment is expected to rise in the medium to long term as grace periods on restructured debt expire (World Bank). In the long term, revenue from offshore oil production will continue to expand, providing additional fiscal room for social programs and fostering resilient economic growth. Currency stabilization, coupled with decreasing global inflationary pressures, led to a moderation in domestic inflation to 32.6% (year-on-year) by December 2023. This rate is expected to notably slow down in 2024 and over the medium term, as the government maintains a stringent monetary policy and external inflationary pressures diminish.

The unemployment rate stood at 8% in 2023. Initial results from a recent poverty assessment reveal that in 2022, following years of macroeconomic difficulties, roughly 17.5% of the population resided below the World Bank's upper-middle-income poverty line of USD 6.85 (2017 PPP) per day. Inequality, quantified by the Gini coefficient, stood at approximately 38.9, consistent with levels observed in other countries within the region. The country also faces problems with access to water and sanitation services. Housing is another big challenge, with a significant number of people living in illegal dwellings on land they do not own. Unskilled labor, underdeveloped infrastructure, and restricted access to credit further hinder Suriname's population.

Monetary Indicators	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Surinam Dollar (SRD) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 GHS	1.56	1.72	1.63	1.44	1.66

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

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Latest Update: May 2024