Esboço econômico

Indicadores econômicos

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

The Algerian economy is mainly driven by hydrocarbons and public investment, with the former accounting for 40% of GDP, 94% of exports and one-third of fiscal revenues. In 2022, the country benefited from high energy prices and the increased demand from Europe that followed the EU sanctions against Russia: overall, the IMF estimated growth at 4.7%. In the same year, non-hydrocarbon GDP growth was projected to accelerate to 3.2%, from 2.1% one year earlier (IMF), despite the erosion of household purchasing power caused by food price-driven inflation. For 2023, GDP growth is forecast at 2.6% amid lower investment (especially in the private sector), with a further deceleration for 2024 (2% according to the IMF).

In recent years, continued large fiscal and external current account deficits have reduced policy space as public debt increased significantly and international reserves declined (IMF). The situation improved only partially in 2022, as higher hydrocarbon revenues contributed offsetting the government's operational and capital expenditure and the large share of social transfers (estimated to account for around 9.5% of GDP according to Coface). Nevertheless, such a strong dependence on oil prices underlines the need for economic diversification, especially toward petrochemicals, gas and agricultural products that have high export potential. After soaring following the COVID-19 crisis, the public debt-to-GDP ratio decreased to 62.7% in 2022, but it is expected to follow an upward trend over the forecast horizon, at 70.3% this year and 75.6% in 2024 (IMF). Overall, Algeria’s external debt level is very low (less than 3% of GDP) but could increase in the event of adverse shocks or if fiscal deficits widen. Foreign exchange reserves have been falling since 2013, decreasing from USD 195 billion to USD 53.5 billion in September 2022. Inflationary pressures have intensified due to higher international food prices and an episode of drought: the annual average inflation rate reached 9.7% in 2022, a level not seen in 25 years. The central bank has taken actions to control price pressures, but monetary policy remained accommodative, and the IMF expects inflation to remain high in 2023 (8.7%) and 2024 (9.3%). The new Government Action Plan comprises a wide range of reforms to support the transition towards a more diversified and sustainable economy and bolster governance and social cohesion, for example focusing on the mining sector (iron, phosphate), in accordance with the 2021-2023 national mining programme. Moreover, the country is looking for ways to reduce its dependence on gas for power generation by investing in solar energy.

According to IMF estimates, unemployment hit 13.7% of the population in 2022. As per the World Bank, unemployment is highest among youth, women and graduates due to skills mismatch in the labour market. With a youth unemployment rate above 30%, in 2022 Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced a new unemployment benefit for first-time jobseekers aged 19 to 40. There are also big differences between living conditions in cities and rural areas, and instability caused by radical groups on Algeria's borders remains a risk factor.

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