Birmânia: Contexto econômico

Economic Indicators

Over the last decade, Myanmar underwent an unprecedented process of economic and political liberalization, which led the United States to lift sanctions on the country that had been in place for almost two decades. Nevertheless, the elected government was overthrown by a military coup d'état in February 2021, prompting the U.S. government's decision to authorize new sanctions, adding uncertainty to the country’s future economic performance. Towards the end of 2023, conflict across large parts of Myanmar intensified, leading to displacement, labor scarcities, and heightened logistics expenses. The World Bank estimated the 2023 growth rate at 4%, following a 12% contraction the previous year. Agriculture continued to face challenges due to elevated input expenses, conflict, trade constraints, and flooding. Real GDP growth is projected to decelerate to 1% in FY23/24 and 2% in the subsequent year, primarily due to disruptions in the supply chain and the effects of uncertainty stemming from conflict on consumption, investment, and productive activities.

During the fiscal year 2022/23, the budget deficit widened to 6.4% of GDP, primarily due to a contraction in revenue that outweighed a modest decrease in spending. Expenditure on goods and services declined by nearly 2% of GDP, partially offset by increased capital spending. Approximately 70% of gross public financing needs (about 4.8% of GDP) were covered by the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM), mainly from domestic sources. Despite efforts, total public debt remained above 60% of GDP. The impact of budget deficits on the debt-to-GDP ratio was broadly offset by faster inflation. Headline inflation reached 28.6% (year-on-year) in June 2023, moderating only slightly from its peak of 35% in December 2022, driven by surges in food and transport prices reflecting exchange rate depreciation and increased conflict (data from the World Bank). Authorities introduced price control measures and export restrictions to respond to the sharp increase in food prices. As of the end of February 2024, the gap between the parallel market rate and the official reference rate had widened to around 60-70%, with persistent shortages of US dollars at rates below the market value. In December, the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) partially eased foreign currency restrictions.

Unemployment was estimated at 2.9% in 2023 by the World Bank; however, the salary of many workers does not allow them to meet the daily needs of their families. Household incomes remain adversely affected by consecutive shocks. According to the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute, 40% of surveyed households reported lower income in the first half of 2023 compared to the previous year, while only 25% reported an increase. IFPRI indicates that median real incomes declined by 10.2% over the same period. A newly implemented national conscription law, which requires citizens across different age groups to serve a two-year military term based on their occupational status, has introduced further uncertainty, potentially leading to outward migration flows. Additionally, armed conflicts have disrupted crucial trade.

Monetary Indicators	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Myanmar Kyat (MMK) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 GHS	309.49	312.68	311.82	294.65	255.34

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

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Latest Update: May 2024