Esboço econômico

Indicadores econômicos

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Since the end of the EU-IMF bailout in late 2013, Ireland has enjoyed steady economic growth, and positioned itself as the fastest growing European economy. The national economy has been supported by strong domestic demand and by the activities of multinational companies operating in the country. After recording an exceptional growth in 2021 (+13.6%), Ireland’s economy grew at a slower pace in 2022 (+9%) but remained very dynamic. Economic growth is supported by strong interior demand boosted by the full relaxation of the pandemic-related restrictions and dynamic exports from multinational-dominated sectors (IMF). The IMF expects GDP growth to ease to 4% in 2023 and 2024. The war in Ukraine, persistent inflationary pressures fuelled by supply bottlenecks and layoffs in the multinational tech sector will negatively affect growth (IMF and The Economist Intelligence Unit).

Despite the war in Ukraine and the global energy crisis, the Irish economy remained resilient in 2022. In addition to the strong financial performance of multinational companies, consumer and domestic firms’ spending were stimulated by the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions. The government implemented various measures to deal with the consequences of the war in Ukraine, including lower VAT on gas and electricity, discounted fuel prices, reduced public transport fares and allowances for less well-off households (Coface). The wide package adopted in September to support households and SMEs against inflation in 2022-2023 represented 2.6% GDP (OECD). As a result of the various fiscal packages, Ireland's previously balanced budget was pushed into deficit in 2020 (-5.1% GDP) and 2021 (-1.7% GDP), but it returned to a small surplus in 2022 (0.4% GDP) due to the surge in corporate tax revenues (IMF). According to IMF estimates, the budget should remain in surplus in 2023 (0.5% GDP) and 2024 (0.7% GDP). Taking into account the  to the transient nature of corporate tax revenues, the government decided to put EUR 6 billion of windfall tax gains in the National Reserve Fund by 2023 (OECD). Public debt, which is relatively modest compared to the Eurozone average, is expected to continue to decrease, from 47.0% GDP in 2022 to 42.8% GDP in 2023 and 39.2% GDP in 2024 (IMF). In addition to the pandemic-related supply chain delays, the war in Ukraine led to the surge in the prices of many commodities (oil, gas, metals, cereals) in 2022. From 2.4% in 2021, inflation soared to 8.4% in 2022 (IMF). It is expected to remain high in 2023 (6.5%) before declining to 3% in 2024 (IMF). The Budget 2023, coined as a ‘cost of living’ budget, aims at tackling inflation and supporting households and businesses. In addition to these short-term objectives, the priorities are also to ensure sustainable tax receipts, to reinforce the country’s resilience against future shocks, to address housing and health issues and to tackle climate change. Measures include tax credits, refunds, changes in tax rates and rate bands, extension of incentive schemes etc. (PwC) Global economic uncertainty over the war in Ukraine, high inflation, and the volatility of tax revenues that are highly dependent on the activity of multinationals are the main challenges. In the medium term, higher corporate tax rates and tensions around the implementation of the agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom could deteriorate business climate (OECD).

According to data from the National Statistics Office (CSO), after soaring due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment rate decreased to 4.3% in December 2022. IMF figures indicate an unemployment rate of 4.7% in 2022, and forecast a slight increase to 4.8% in 2023 and 2024. In November 2020, the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment (considering all claimants of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) classified as unemployed) indicated a rate as high as 20.4% (CSO).

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