Contexto econômico da Malásia

Economic Indicators

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Malaysia is the 4th largest economy of South East Asia and has continued to perform strongly in recent years, due to a strong global demand for electronics, increased demand for commodities, such as oil and gas, an improving labour market, a pro-cyclical budget and ample infrastructure spending. However, the government's declining expenditure as well as lower public and private investments already reduced economic growth to 4.4% in 2019. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the growth has been sharply reversed to -5.5% in 2020 but rebounded at 3.1% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2022. The IMF's latest forecast (October 2022) is expecting another strong growth at 4.4% in 2023 and 4.9% in 2024, subject to the post-pandemic global economic recovery.

During the past few years, a political crisis, low oil and commodity export prices and the slowdown in China have deeply affected Malaysia’s economy, putting pressure on the country's finances. Malaysia has the highest debt level in the region, estimated at 69.6% of GDP in 2022 (IMF, October 2022), with spending increasing faster than GDP. Debt levels are expected to remain stable in 2023 and 2024 at 70%.

Due to the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, Malaysia recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to -3.5% in 2020 and -6.5% in 2021 of the country's Gross Domestic Product (Ministry of Finance Malaysia, 2022). It remained at 4.1% in 2022 and is forcasted to stabilised at -3.1% in 2023 and 2024. Future budget measures include a more inclusive economy for the population: increased cash support for low-income families, extra funds for affordable housing projects, more entrepreneurship programmes to elevate lower-income groups and an increase in Malaysia’s competitiveness. The government faces various challenges, including the weakening of the Malaysian currency, the drop in oil prices (since oil revenues account for 30% of state revenue) and the fall in commodity export prices. Inflation went negative in 2020 at -1.1% and then reached 2.5% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022. It is expected to stabilise at 2.8% in 2023 and 2024 (IMF, October 2022).

Malaysia is on track to achieving high-income status by 2024. The country has one of the highest standards of living in Southeast Asia and a low unemployment rate estimated at 4.5% in 2022 (IMF, October 2022), but the youth unemployment rate is more than triple (15.6%, World Bank, 2022) and rural youth doesn't count statistically. The 11th Malaysia Plan charts a path toward advanced economy status and greater inclusion, through a range of development issues such as equity, inclusiveness, environmental sustainability, human capital development, and infrastructure. Less than 1% of Malaysian households live in extreme poverty. The IMF expects the unemployment rate to stabilise at 4.3% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024.

In 2023, the country’s most immediate challenge will be to navigate the volatile international context, due to the persistent health and economic effects of a global pandemic and a war in Europe, a cost-of-living crisis caused by persistent and broadening inflation pressures, and the slowdown in China.

Main Sectors of Industry

Since gaining its independence in 1957, Malaysia has successfully diversified its economy from agriculture and commodity-based to solid manufacturing and service sectors. It had a labor force of 16.1 million people out of a 32.97 million population in 2022. Agriculture employed around 10% of Malaysians in 2022 and contributed to 9.6% of GDP (World Bank, 2023). Malaysia is the second main producer of palm oil and tropical wood, and the fifth largest exporter of rubber. The country has successfully developed its economy based on raw materials and has significant reserves of oil, gas, copper and bauxite.

Industry contributed to around 37.8% of GDP and employed nearly 27% of the active population in 2022 (World Bank, 2023). Malaysia is one of the world's largest exporters of semi-conductor devices, electrical goods and appliances, and the government has ambitious plans to make the country a key producer and developer of high-tech products, including software. Malaysia is a major outsourcing destination for components manufacturing, after China and India. The country has attracted significant foreign investment, which has played a major role in the transformation of its economy.

The service sector employs the majority of the population (over 63% in 2022) and accounts for 52.6% of GDP (World Bank, 2023) which is due mainly to healthcare services, transport, distributive trade and tourism. Tourism was the third biggest contributor to Malaysia’s GDP, after manufacturing and commodities, with over 7% of GDP and 26.1 million foreign tourists in 2019, according to Tourism Malaysia. Over the years, Malaysia has become one of Southeast Asia's major tourist destinations, and since 2020 the country was waiting for the world's borders to open again to international travel. The borders are now open and tourists are slowly making their way to Malaysia in 2023.

Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook.  Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023, the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024 (International Monetary Fund - IMF, 2023). The impact of the 2022 world events appears to have affected both sides of most sectors and markets in this country for the third year in a row - demand disruptions having run up against supply problems - making the short-term outlook uncertain for agriculture, industry and service sectors.

 

Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector	Agriculture	Industry	Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment)	10.3	27.0	62.7
Value Added (in % of GDP)	9.6	37.8	51.6
Value Added (Annual % Change)	-0.2	5.6	1.9

Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}

Score:

74,4/100

World Rank:

22

Regional Rank:

5

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 

Business environment ranking

Definition

Definition:

The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.

Score:

7.24/10

World Rank:

27/82

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024

 

Sources of General Economic Information

Ministries

Ministry of Finance
Ministry of International Trade and Industry
Ministry of Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs

Statistical Office

Department of Statistics Malaysia

Central Bank

Central Bank of Malaysia

Stock Exchange

Malaysia Stock Exchange (Bursa Malaysia)

Economic Portals

Business Times