República das Filipinas flag República das Filipinas: Esboço econômico

Esboço econômico

Indicadores econômicos

The Philippines' economy is considered as one of the most dynamic in East Asia and the Pacific. Following a robust rebound from the pandemic in 2022, economic expansion slowed in the first half of 2023 owing to external challenges, fiscal underutilization, and the normalization of accumulated demand. However, after bouncing back in the second half of the year, total GDP growth was estimated at 5.3% by the IMF. This year, growth is projected to attain 5.9%, buoyed by an uptick in public investment and enhanced external demand for Philippine exports. The resurgence in private investment is expected to be gradual, given the need to deplete excess real estate inventory. The government's infrastructure initiatives, along with increased FDI opportunities and private sector involvement through Public-Private Partnership models, will gradually attract private investment and unlock a growth potential ranging from 6% to 6.5% over the medium term (IMF).

 
Concerning public finances, the budget deficit stood at 4.8% of GDP in 2023, down from 5.6% one year earlier. The 2024 budget proposal, ratified by the House of Representatives in September, targets a deficit of 5.1% of GDP. This consolidation primarily hinges on increased tax revenues and prudent management of current expenditures. The national government debt increased marginally from 57.5% of GDP at the end-2022 to 57.6% in 2023 and is projected to remain stable over the forecast horizon, driven mainly by a favourable interest-growth differential. Debt coverage at the national level is considered appropriate by the IMF, as local government units and social security institutions have surpluses. Inflation decelerated from its peak in early 2023, aided by domestic policy tightening, although there has been a recent uptick attributed to resurgent commodity prices, averaging 5.8%. Inflation is expected to converge to the target band in 2024 (3.2%) and 2025 (3%).

In 2023, the unemployment rate (4.7%) and underemployment rate remained close to their historical lows, with the labour force participation rate moving above its pre-pandemic levels although broader measures incorporating the informal labour market suggest some slack remains. The country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 10,133 in 2023 by the World Bank but 22% of the population still lives below the poverty line (PSA, 2023). According to a 2022 report by the World Bank, the Philippines ranked 15th out of 63 countries in terms of income inequality. The top 1% of income earners accounted for 17% of the national income, while the bottom 50% only garnered 14%.

 
Indicadores de crescimento 20222023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)
PIB (bilhões de USD) 404.28435.68475.95521.90574.43
PIB (crescimento anual em %, preço constante) 7.65.35.96.16.2
PIB per capita (USD) 3,6243,8594,1694,5234,926
Saldo do Balanço de Pagamentos (em % do PIB) -5.6-4.8-4.3-4.0-3.5
Dívida Pública (em % do PIB) 57.557.657.757.456.4
Índice de inflação (%) n/a5.83.23.03.0
Taxa de desemprego (% da população economicamente ativa) 5.44.75.15.15.1
Balanço das transações correntes (bilhões de USD) -18.12-12.95-12.27-11.02-9.60
Balanço das transações correntes (em % do PIB) -4.5-3.0-2.6-2.1-1.7

Fonte: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016

Nota: (e) Dado estimativo

 
Indicadores monetários 20162017201820192020
Philippine Peso (PHP) - Taxa cambial média anual em relação ao 1 GHS 11.9011.5911.489.968.87

Fonte: World Bank, 2015

 

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