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Esboço econômico

Indicadores econômicos

Despite Sweden's exposure to global trade dynamics, Covid-19 has had a rather limited impact on its economy compared with most other European countries. GDP returned to its pre-pandemic level in 2021 and continued growing in 2022 (+2.8%). Nevertheless, the Swedish economy contracted in 2023, mainly due to a decrease in private consumption and a decline in housing construction. Factors such as high inflation, uncertainty, and rising interest rates contributed to these challenges. In fact, the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances over the years had rendered the Swedish economy susceptible to the impact of tightening monetary conditions. In 2024, uncertainties regarding income due to a cooling labour market and housing market pressures are expected to restrain private consumption. The recovery in household consumption in 2025 is anticipated to be supported by real disposable income gains resulting from decreasing inflation. Housing construction is projected to decrease, influenced by reduced dwelling valuations, limited borrowing capacity, and rising construction costs. Conversely, robust corporate balance sheets and innovative projects in manufacturing are likely to bolster investments in equipment and information and ICT. Overall, the IMF forecasts growth of 0.6% this year and 2.4% in 2025 (-0.2% and 1,3%, respectively, according to the EU Commission).

Sweden is among the few advanced European economies to show both a current account surplus and low public debt. Having achieved a surplus in 2022, the general government balance experienced a minor deficit in 2023 (-0.3% of GDP). Although tax revenues, particularly from corporate income tax, remained robust at the central government level, increased spending on items like indexed social transfers and pensions contributed to the deficit. Over the forecast horizon, increasing unemployment is poised to impact income tax revenue negatively, while automatic stabilizers are expected to elevate expenditure through social transfers to households. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is among the lowest in the EU and was estimated at 32.3% in 2023 (IMF). It is assumed to remain stable in the near term. The headline HICP inflation rate reached its peak at the end of 2022 and has subsequently decreased, following a decline in energy prices and the alleviation of supply constraints. It was estimated at 6.9% in 2023 but is projected to gradually decrease to 2.7% by 2025 (IMF).

The country’s unemployment rate was stable at 7.5% in 2023. Nevertheless, employment growth is anticipated to slow down, responding to the cyclical downturn with a delay. The IMF expects the unemployment rate to increase by 8.1% in 2024, while average real wages gradually move into positive territory on the back of falling inflation. Overall, Swedish citizens enjoy a high per capita GDP of USD 66,209 (PPP – 2023), 16.2% higher than the EU’s average, and the European Anti-Poverty Network (EAPN) estimates that only 2% of Sweden’s population lives in serious material poverty conditions. Nominal wage growth, however, has been lagging behind inflation, resulting in a reduction of households’ real disposable income.

 
Indicadores de crescimento 20222023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)
PIB (bilhões de USD) 590.41593.27623.05651.28680.16
PIB (crescimento anual em %, preço constante) 2.7-0.20.22.22.2
PIB per capita (USD) 56,11456,22558,52960,67362,870
Saldo do Balanço de Pagamentos (em % do PIB) 0.6-0.0-0.10.20.5
Dívida Pública (em % do PIB) 32.935.936.035.034.0
Índice de inflação (%) 8.15.92.62.02.0
Taxa de desemprego (% da população economicamente ativa) 7.57.78.48.27.7
Balanço das transações correntes (bilhões de USD) 34.5236.9237.0934.2132.97
Balanço das transações correntes (em % do PIB) 5.86.26.05.34.8

Fonte: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016

Nota: (e) Dado estimativo

 
Indicadores monetários 20162017201820192020
Swedish Krona (SEK) - Taxa cambial média anual em relação ao 1 GHS 2.151.961.901.831.65

Fonte: World Bank, 2015

 

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