Esboço econômico

Indicadores econômicos

Having been an oil-producing nation since 2003, Chad had grown highly reliant on this resource, shifting away from its previous agricultural-based economy. Despite the ongoing humanitarian crisis sparked by the war in Sudan, Chad's economy had been poised to achieve its strongest performance since 2014, with GDP growth projected at 4.1% in 2023. This growth had been driven by a 4.4% increase in oil production. Non-oil GDP had been expected to expand by 4.1% (compared to 2% in 2022), largely due to substantial public investment. Following the floods of 2022, the recovery of the agricultural sector had been anticipated to significantly contribute to growth, amounting to 1.6 percentage points (World Bank). In 2024, growth is projected to slow down to 2.7%, with non-oil GDP forecasted at 3.4%. This deceleration is attributed to an anticipated nearly 2% decrease in global oil prices and a decrease in public investment. Over the 2025-2026 timeframe, growth is expected to average 3.1% (0.1% per capita), with non-oil GDP growth estimated at 3.5% during the same period, according to the World Bank.

The significant budget surplus observed over the past two years, largely fueled by substantial oil revenues, is expected to persist in 2024. Public revenues should remain bolstered by the uptrend in global oil prices, alongside efforts to enhance revenue collection through tax legislation simplification and expanding the tax base. These measures align with the government's commitments to the IMF program, essential for disbursements under the Extended Credit Facility. However, the surplus is projected to decrease compared to 2023, attributed to elevated defense expenditures and continued substantial spending to address food insecurity (Coface). With the signing of a debt restructuring agreement in November 2022, public debt as a proportion of GDP is expected to continue declining (from 43.2% in 2023 to 34.9% by 2025, as per the IMF). The agreement facilitated the implementation of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Covering USD 3 billion of external debt, over a third of which is commercial debt owed predominantly to Glencore, a British-Swiss mining and commodities trading company, the agreement was secured despite challenges stemming from the diverse creditor base. Coupled with ECF disbursements, this agreement will mitigate the risk of over-indebtedness in 2024. Meanwhile, inflation was projected at 7% in 2023, but should halve in 2024 amid improved agricultural production.

Chad grapples with widespread poverty and vulnerability, with 42.3% of its population residing below the national poverty threshold. Extreme poverty, defined as living on less than USD 2.15 per day per capita, has also surged, increasing from 31.2% in 2018 to 34.9% in 2021 and 35.4% in 2023 (World Bank). Moreover, the formal unemployment rate in Chad has increased, adding to the predominantly informal and often underutilized workforce.

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