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Esboço econômico

Indicadores econômicos

On February 24th 2022, Russia initiated a military conflict on the Ukrainian territory, which profoundly upsets the current political context in both countries and will have substantial political and economic ramifications. For the ongoing updates on the developments of Russia-Ukraine conflict please consult the dedicated pages on BBC News.

Nearly two years into the conflict, Russia's invasion of Ukraine stands as a tragic event with profound human and economic consequences. The invasion has inflicted staggering losses on both the people and the economy of Ukraine, erasing 15 years of development gains and exacerbating poverty. After contracting by nearly 30% in 2022, Ukraine's economy experienced a modest rebound last year, registering a growth of 2% (IMF, 3.5% according to the World Bank). The recovery can be attributed to sustained donor support, a more stable electricity supply, heightened government spending, improved agricultural yields, and the redirection of certain exports through Ukraine's western borders. The economic forecast for Ukraine anticipates growth rates of 3.2% in 2024 and a robust 6.5% in 2025 (IMF), with private consumption and public investments as key drivers. However, GDP would still be 20% below its pre-war levels and the overall economic outlook remains contingent on factors such as the progress of the ongoing war, the influx of foreign funds, and the evolution of export patterns.

Following an increase in 2023 (20.5% of GDP according to the EU Commission estimates), the general government deficit is expected to stay elevated in 2024 (19.7%). This is attributed to substantial expenditures associated with the ongoing war effort on the expenditure side, coupled with weak revenue growth stemming from a modest increase in GDP. In 2025, a reduction in total expenditure, particularly in war-related expenses, is anticipated, contributing to a partial narrowing of the fiscal deficit (to 12% of GDP). in March 2023, Ukraine secured a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement, granting access to USD 15.6 billion. This arrangement is integral to a larger USD 122 billion support package for Ukraine. The IMF-supported program, endorsed by the authorities, is designed to establish policies that uphold fiscal, external, price, and financial stability amid the heightened uncertainty resulting from the ongoing war. The debt-to-GDP ratio has been increasing steadily since the start of the invasion, reaching 88.2% in 2023, and is projected to surpass 100% by 2025. A tight monetary policy, falling food prices, and rapid repairs of the energy infrastructure contributed to a reduction in inflation, which was estimated at 17.7% last year. Assuming a continuation of easing supply constraints and a slowdown in global prices, inflation should further decrease throughout the forecast horizon (to 8.6% by 2025).

The labour market has shown signs of stabilization in 2023, driven by reduced net migration outflows and the partial return of internally displaced persons. However, the persistently high number of displaced individuals, both abroad and within Ukraine, will continue to exert pressure on the labour market, causing imbalances across regions and sectors. Despite anticipated economic growth, the unemployment rate – at 19.4% in 2023 - is projected to stay elevated, albeit on a declining trend. Concurrently, regional and sectoral labour shortages, coupled with an expected decrease in inflation, are likely to contribute to a recovery in real wages, especially in 2025.

 
Indicadores de crescimento 20222023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)
PIB (bilhões de USD) 160.52177.20188.94193.60202.56
PIB (crescimento anual em %, preço constante) -29.15.03.26.55.0
PIB per capita (USD) 4,5835,3375,6635,6425,774
Saldo do Balanço de Pagamentos (em % do PIB) -15.00.00.00.00.0
Dívida Pública (em % do PIB) 78.482.994.096.795.9
Índice de inflação (%) 20.212.96.47.66.2
Taxa de desemprego (% da população economicamente ativa) 24.519.114.513.811.6
Balanço das transações correntes (bilhões de USD) 7.97-9.75-10.83-15.89-14.14
Balanço das transações correntes (em % do PIB) 5.0-5.5-5.7-8.2-7.0

Fonte: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, 2016

Nota: (e) Dado estimativo

 
Indicadores monetários 20162017201820192020
Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH) - Taxa cambial média anual em relação ao 1 GHS 6.406.115.934.964.82

Fonte: World Bank, 2015

 

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